Declining enrollment and population distribution
It is the school board’s legal responsibility to adjust student facilities to reflect changes in demographic patterns and educational priorities over time. School closure may be advisable if there are too many facilities within a community and insufficient current and anticipated student populations to maintain a healthy neighbourhood school.
Minister of Education Mike Bernier and Premier Christy Clark argue that school closures are needed to address falling enrollment. Since 2001, there has been a decline of 6,200 students attending public schools in Vancouver. But there is a greater context surrounding this trend.
Minister of Education Mike Bernier and Premier Christy Clark argue that school closures are needed to address falling enrollment. Since 2001, there has been a decline of 6,200 students attending public schools in Vancouver. But there is a greater context surrounding this trend.
BackgroundOver the last 50 years, the rise and fall of public school enrollment in BC and the rest of Canada, has followed an undulating curve of boom, bust, and echo, with the last peak occurring in 1997 and with a consequent though relatively smaller decline. This decline has stabilized and is starting to reverse, with census data from 2011 indicating growth in the age 0-4 population. So, while it is true that there has been a decline in students attending public school in Vancouver since 2001, it is a distortion of statistics to use the population peak of the late 1990s as a benchmark population size to assess current facilities.
In Metro Vancouver the recent student-age population dip has been far less pronounced than in more rural areas of BC, largely due to immigration. It is important to note that during this period of public school enrollment decline, enrollment in private schools has risen significantly. Between 2001 and 2010, increased enrollment in private schools (1,529) accounts for a full half of the students lost from the public system (3,092). In addition, census data indicates that while public school enrollment has continued to decline by a further 3,000 students since 2011, the actual student age population is remaining constant. (In elementary schools: 35,936 students lived in Vancouver in 2011 and aging up from the same census data, there would be 36,601 students in 2016; The 0-4 population changes in the 2011 census data indicates that current student numbers in Vancouver have decreased on the West Side (12,089-11,261), modestly increased on the East Side (22,600 to 22,975), and a sharply increased in the Downtown area (1,247-2,365.) Looking at the difference between current enrollment and current elementary aged populations based on 2011 census data information, an estimated 24% of elementary-aged children do not currently attend public school. Clearly, there has been a decline in public-school enrollment in Vancouver. However, the overall capacity utilization of school buildings in the District is 85%, even when calculated using the restrictive criteria set by the provincial government. We believe it is reckless and premature to close schools in order to achieve a District wide capacity utilization target of 95%, when current capacity percentages do not necessarily correspond to actual population trends and the city is actively encouraging the retention of families through affordable housing measures. |
What about future population needs?Barager Systems, the company used by the VSB for data for short-term enrollment projections, has predicted a stabilization of public-school enrollment over the next ten years, despite a projected 14% increase in population within the city. The VSB’s LRFP correctly states that increased population growth may not necessarily correspond to an increase in children and therefore enrollment demand. The limiting factor in Vancouver for student population growth is the availability of affordable housing. However, Vancouver is currently pushing for legislation to curb escalating housing prices and to increase the percentage of family units in new development sites. Most of these development sites, such as Grandview Woodlands, are located on the city's East Side where school closure is recommended. If these policies are successful, they may have significant impacts on future student populations and school enrollment.
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Is a school’s low enrolment related to population decline in that area?While the degree of surplus capacity in schools is certainly exaggerated when calculated using the government's criteria, it is the uneven distribution of surplus capacity across schools in the District that is the real concern. Some schools are extremely overcrowded, operating as high as 148% capacity, and other schools have a much lower capacity utilization, some as low as 34%. For some schools, overcrowding is directly related to increased population (as seen in False Creek and the Downtown core). However, the capacity utilization of a school is a poor indicator of the actual school-aged population located within its catchment, and a decline in a school’s enrollment does not necessarily correlate with a decline in population in the area.
The VSB has stated in its LRFP that schools on the East Side have lower capacity utilization than those on the West Side (76% to 97%, respectively), a higher operating capacity (35,136 on the East Side to the West Side's 24,449), and smaller catchments. However, this does not take into account the higher population density on the East Side and the fact that twice as many school-age students live on the East Side versus the West Side. Based on the 2011 census data, there are approximately 11,261 elementary school aged children living on the West Side (excluding Downtown and UBC) and 22,975 on the East Side. This ratio of actual students east to west exactly corresponds to the current operating capacities of East- and West-Side elementary schools in those areas: 21,790 on the East and 10,495 on the West. If the 12 proposed schools are closed, the total operating capacity on the East Side would drop to only 17,772. To confuse matters, the actual enrollment from the 2015/16 school year shows consistently high enrollment of 9,382 students on the West Side, despite a 1,000 student population decline, and only 17,002 students enrolled on the East Side despite a slight increase in student-aged population. In other words, there is a large discrepancy between the number of children who live on the East Side and the number of children enrolled in East Side schools. |
Why are children not attending their neighbourhood schools?What can account for this massive discrepancy between actual student populations and public school enrollment on the East Side? This distortion of student distribution is in part a result of choice legislation, introduced by the provincial government in 2002, which allows students to register at any school outside their catchment if space allows. In Vancouver, about 41% of elementary students attend public schools outside their local catchment (22.5% of those in specialized District programs and 18.5 cross boundary). Among secondary students, 49% attend cross-boundary, (30% in District programs and 19% cross boundary). This is a significant increase since 2012. In the VSB’s sectoral review that examined school enrollment and mobility patterns, it was noted minimal cross boundary movement for elementary schools and 35% cross boundary mobility for secondary.
Choice legislation, combined with surplus capacity and years of underfunding, has created a highly competitive situation between schools. Some schools have strong Parent Advisory Councils (PACs) whose fundraising enables them to afford playground equipment, technology purchases, choir programs, band or strings, and fine-arts programs. Some schools do not have the ability to raise funds to compensate for underfunding. This has resulted in a net migration of students away from schools in lower income areas, where housing is most affordable and families are most densely located. In addition to undermining the diversity and cohesion of neighbourhoods, the controversial school rankings published by the Fraser Institute further reinforces parent perceptions, even though they are shown to be more reflective of the socio-economic status of the neighbourhood rather than the quality of instruction. That lower capacity schools are also less likely to be seismically upgraded creates a further incentive for parents who are able to look elsewhere, reinforcing a downward spiral of reduced enrollment and economic segregation. In other words, reduced enrollment in Vancouver is a consequence of an underfunded public education system decimated by annual cuts to programming and dilapidated facilities. This trend has also exacerbated inequities between schools. If schools are closed to achieve 95% capacity utilization based on current enrollment patterns, it will reinforce segregation and create a situation in which future students will be forced to attend a school outside their catchment. This will have severe, long-term consequences for the health and future growth of neighbourhoods, and is all the more alarming given that the growth of preschool and primary school populations is highest on the East Side, where housing is more affordable and where most school closures are proposed. We are extremely concerned that long-term decisions are being made just months before the release of the 2016 census data that will include information on the actual student populations in every area of the city and crucial data on where future growth is anticipated. For example, Mount Pleasant neighbourhood has two “tiered” schools (all of Florence Nightingale's catchment and about half of Queen Alexandra's). Extrapolating from Census 2011 numbers, about 1597 elementary aged children reside here. Currently, based on estimates for catchments which cross-over the neighbourhood boundaries, there are about 1089 spaces in the 5 neighbourhood school catchments, space for 68% of the children living in the area. If the closures take place, this will go down to about 953 spaces in 4 neighbourhood schools. Only 60% of the children living in the area could be accommodated; the remaining 40% would be forced to find school options elsewhere, even if they wanted to attend their neighbourhood school. In 2010, when the VSB elected not to close the five schools put forward for closure at that time, the recommendations called for a long-term strategy to encourage attendance at neighbourhood schools and an investigation into “the possible roles of independent schools, demographic shifts, catchment boundary changes, school choice, the placement of District (magnet) programs, and systemic discrimination (such as racism) in the variation in enrollment between schools.” The conclusion reached in the VSB 2012 Sectoral Review did not address these aforementioned concerns, simply stating; "clearly parents desire choice." The enrollment patterns and distribution of students across Vancouver do not currently support a vision of healthy neighbourhood schooling for the future. It is extremely worrisome to close schools without properly identifying and addressing the underlying cause of under-enrollment when there is no shortage of in-catchment students. |
Low enrolment and povertyOf additional concern is that schools on the East Side are disproportionately targeted for school closure in neighbourhoods with high levels of poverty and low enrollment. The children who attend these schools and their families are most reliant on the stability and support these schools provide. This can clearly be seen in this map of levels and percentages of child vulnerability in Vancouver using the early development index of different neighbourhoods and by regions. Critical areas where closures are proposed include the Downtown Eastside (44% of child population is vulnerable on one or more scales), Northeast (43%), South Vancouver (42-44%), and Midtown (38%).
Although children living in poverty can be found all across Vancouver, they are predominantly concentrated in certain identified or “tiered” schools located on the East Side. Of the schools directly impacted by the proposed school closure list, 4 are Tier 1 schools, as well as an additional school in each of the Tier 2 and Tier 3 groupings. Furthermore, of the 25 Vancouver elementary schools serving the highest number of vulnerable students, 10 will be impacted if the proposed schools are closed. Research indicates that poverty is the most persistent barrier to student achievement in schools. A staggering 22% of Vancouver children live in poverty. According to a recent study by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) approximately 9% of Vancouver residents are working poor, with 42% of these having dependent children. The majority of Vancouver's working poor live on the East Side. For these struggling families, schools provide crucial supports and relational networks vital to their well-being. A recent VSB study on inner-city schools identified the integration within local schools of services and supports for families and the community as a crucial factor necessary to best serve vulnerable populations. Of particular importance is early childhood education and care (identified as a key component of increasing school success for this population), as well as parent support space. Some of the other important school-based programs serving vulnerable communities include boys and girls clubs, ESL classes, Adult Education, Spare Time Community Program, homework club, KAMP, Engage Immigrant Youth Program (VSB/SWIS), and counselling services. Children living in poverty are more likely to have unstable and crowded living conditions at home, which inhibit the psychological space needed for concentration and self-regulation. It is imperative that vulnerable children have sufficient quiet space to learn, to sleep if needed, or to take a break. Research shows conclusively that smaller class sizes and smaller schools have a significant impact on increasing student achievement in this population. Furthermore, studies have shown that a high exposure to the arts has significant impact on increasing positive life outcomes (such as academic performance, graduation rates, employment and civic participation) in at-risk children. Participation in the arts is empowering and increases intrinsic motivation, self-esteem, positive identity formation, and a healthy self-expression. While the arts are part of the core BC curriculum, funding cutbacks have decimated arts programming in Vancouver schools. While some families can compensate through private lessons or PAC fundraising, many families cannot. Quality education in the arts requires access to appropriate non-enrolling spaces within schools, which under current government criteria are considered surplus space. [See our discussion on Tiered Schools on the Capacity Matters: Definitions page] All children deserve sufficient space to meet their learning needs. Equity in education recognizes that factors such as socio-economic background have significant impacts on a child's ability to learn. Space is a resource for providing the best learning environments for children impacted by poverty. It is crucial that we protect these spaces to allow disadvantaged children the best educational opportunity to reach their full potential. Another consistent recommendation in research around factors that increase student achievement for socio-economically disadvantaged children is diversity of school populations. In other words, concentrating at-risk populations together through the consolidation of highly vulnerable populations or “tiered” schools, as is proposed in the VSB’s current closure list, may exacerbate the impacts of poverty on student outcomes. The government's insistence on using high capacity utilization as a criterion for funding approval for seismic projects means that lower income children are far more likely to attend seismically unsafe schools. |